1. Understanding Market Overrounds & Bookmaker Margins

In financial equity markets, market makers profit from bid-ask spreads. In sports wagering, bookmakers build a mathematical edge known as the overround or vigorish (vig). When the sum of all implied probabilities across all outcomes exceeds 100%, the surplus represents the house edge.

On traditional bookmaker platforms, overrounds routinely reach 108% to 115%, making sustained profitability mathematically difficult. On peer-to-peer betting exchanges like TIGER365, true market matching compresses spreads down to near-zero margins, returning maximum value to players.

2. The Expected Value (+EV) Formulation

A wager holds Positive Expected Value (+EV) whenever the true probability of an outcome exceeds the implied probability reflected in the market price:

EV = (Probability of Win * Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Loss * Amount Lost per Bet)

If an event is priced at 2.00 decimal odds (50% implied probability), but your venue regression model reveals a 58% true win likelihood, placing that wager yields +16% expected return over a large sample of fixtures.

3. Converting Odds Across International Formats

Decimal odds are the international gold standard in modern sports exchanges. Here is a quick reference table showing conversion between decimal odds, fractional formats, and implied win probability:

For complete interactive conversion, bookmark our Cricket Odds Cheat Sheet and test staking strategies on the Sports Betting Calculators.

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